STABILISE OUR CLIMATE : STOP GLOBAL WARMING January 95
Climate change is potentially the biggest threat to the future of the human race and the environment. Government leaders will meet in March 1995 at the "Climate Summit" to review the Climate Change Convention that was signed in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio. They need to hear from citizens and organisations around the world that bold action is needed to stop global warming.
The growing scale of human activity on the planet is rapidly changing our atmosphere. By burning massive amounts of fossil fuels and destroying our forests we are in danger of raising global average temperatures and disrupting the earth's climate.
Rising sea levels, threats to food crops, more severe floods, hurricanes, drought, increasing poverty, the spread of disease, and a threat to the survival of millions of the world's species are some of the risks we face.
The biggest contributor to climate change is the gas carbon dioxide (CO2) which we pump into the atmosphere mainly through our burning of fossil fuels & coal, oil and gas. The destruction of the world's forests also releases large amounts of CO2.
Taken together, the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation account for 74% of human caused emissions of "greenhouse gases" that contribute to global warming.
To protect our climate we must phase out fossil fuels and preserve our forests. Studies show that CO2 emissions could be easily halved within forty years. Existing solutions & including energy conservation and switching to renewable energy sources & only end political will to be implemented.
The Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed at the Earth Summit in Rio by over 160 countries and came into force in March 1994. In it, nations agreed that by the year 2000 CO2 emissions by industrialised countries should be cut back to 1990 levels.
The objective of the Convention is to stabilise CO2 and other greenhouse gases at levels that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. To reach this goal, however, will require much greater reductions in emissions than merely returning to 1990 levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of leading scientists, predicts that 60% cuts are needed. The Convention requires that industrialised countries take the lead but also calls on developing countries to adopt national plans to ensure that their development makes the least possible contribution to climate change.
The first decision-making meeting for strengthening the Convention, officially known as "The First Conference of the Parties", COP1, (unofficially as the "Climate Summit"), will take place in Berlin from 28 March to 7 April 1995. The first COP must revue the adequacy of current emission reduction commitments of industrialised countries.
The Alliance of 36 Small Island States has submitted a proposed Protocol to the Convention calling for a 20% CO2 cut for industrialised countries. This is a vital step to stabilise the climate and stop global warming. But there is strong resistance. Public pressure is needed now.
BACKGROUND
Climate Change: The Problem
The Climate Convention was prompted by the strong concern of over 300 of the world's top climate scientists making up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC warns that greenhouse gas emissions cuts of over 60% are needed to stabilise their levels in the atmosphere. Their historic 1990 report predicted a rise in the average global temperature of 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade unless action is taken. Small as this sounds any increase greater than 0.1 degree per decade is likely to cause ecosystems to collapse (according to work done by the Stockholm Environment Institute).
Climate change means much more than higher temperatures. It will mean an increase in average global temperatures, but some regions will warm more than others. Impacts will vary considerably. Changing rainfall patterns will bring more droughts to some regins but more floods to others. Many plants and animals will face extinction. Global food production would be reduced.
Water supplies will become less reliable in some regions, particularly in those already vulnerable. There may be more hurricanes in the tropics, and more windstorms in Europe. Entire island countries may disappear under the sea.
Many scientists fear that we may already be seeing the early signs of climate change. This involves unprecedented bleaching of corals in Tahiti in March 1994, a feature which is linked to increase of ocean temperature. Another worrying sign is a serious rduction of ocean circulation in the Arctic sea, which is crucial for the absorption of CO2 by the oceans.
The global insurance industry has identified a 40-fold increase of damages due to hurricanes and other weather extremes over the last 25 years.
Already the eight hottest years on record have occurred since the start of the 1980s. The authoritative science agency, The Enquete Commission to the German Bundestag states that: "Our planet is already warming at an increasing rate. The first signs of climate change are already measurable and noticeable. Hence, there is no reason any more to delay urgently required actions."
The Solution:
If action is taken now, unmitigated disaster is not inevitable. We have international political agreement on the need to protect the climate Q the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Now we must set firm targets and timetables within a Protocol to that Convention to reduce emissions by at least 20% by the year 2005. Solutions to global warming do exist Q the "Fossil Free Energy Scenario," a study by the Stockholm Environment Institute commissioned by Greenpeace International, demonstrated that the phase out of fossil and nuclear energy is technically and economically feasible by 2100. Within forty years CO2 emissions could be reduced by 50%. Clean energy alternatives such as solar, wind, small-scale hydro, geothermal and biomass, and an increase in energy efficiency only require political will to be implemented.
Governments must provide political leadership; at local, national and international levels. They must promote energy efficiency and conservation measures, and ensure the development and speedy introduction of new clean energy technologies.
We must use less energy and be more efficient in our use. We need stringent efficiency standards for appliances, homes and offices, industrial processes and vehicles. We need more renewable energy. We need more public transport.
It is essential that these steps are taken in both industrialized and developing nations. Today, the rich nations are the main CO2 emitters. Within a few decades, what are now called "developing countries" will be consuming more energy than the Northern nations. Decisions taken now will determine their impact on the climate in the future.
At present governments and financial institutions like the World Bank continue to favour policies which will only intensify the problem of climate change. They do so with the knowledge that there are alternative options available which can reduce our additive reliance on fossil fuels and which would cut our emissions of greenhouse gases.
New power stations are being built when efficiency programmes would generate more available energy, more jobs and save money. New buildings waste vast amounts of energy instead of incorporating the latest efficient technologies. New renewable energy technologies are being ignored, the victims of a continued dominance of oil, coal and gas. New roads are constructed when investment in railways and mass transport systems are far less polluting.
A future relying less on fossil fuels is essential to preserve the environment from the serious risk of climate change. We know real alternatives exist. We can save the climate Q but the longer we delay action, the more extreme that action will have to be
The Protocol Proposed By The Alliance Of Small Island States
The most promising proposal on the table for a serious response to the threat of climate change is the Protocol proposed by the Alliance of Small Island states. The Protocol would require industrialized countries that sign it to:
* Reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by the year 2005.
* Adopt targets for limiting other greenhouse gases.
* Report to a Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol the specific actions they are taking to meet these targets.
* Ensure that technologies and processes that reduce greenhouse gas emissions are transferred to developing countries as rapidly as possible.
How nations respond to this proposal will be a good indication of their seriousness about preventing climate change.
Even if the Berlin Climate Summit fails to agree on it, there is no reason why more industrialized countries, in addition to the eight which have already done so (Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, New Zealand, and Slovakia), shouldn't make national commitments to the basic goal of a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.
104 Countries that have ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change as of November 29, 1994 (in order of date of ratification): Mauritius, Seychelles, Marshall Islands, United States of America, Zimbabwe, Maldives, Monaco, Canada, Australia, China, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Antigua & Barbuda, Ecuador, Fiji, Mexico, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Cook islands, Guinea, Armenia, Japan, Zambia Peru, Algeria, Saint Lucia, Iceland, Uzbekistan, Dominica, Sweden, Norway, Tunisia, Burkina Faso, Uganda, New Zealand, Mongolia, Czech Republic, Tuvalu, India, Nauru, Jordan, Micronesia, Sudan, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Republic of Korea, Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal, Spain, E.E.C, Cuba, Mauritania, Botswana, Hungary, Paaguay, Austria, Brazil, Argentina, Malta, Barbados, France, Bahamas, Ethiopia, Italy, Bangladesh, Ireland, Malawi, Nepal, Finland, Luxembourg, Pakistan, Chad, Romania, Gambia, Liechtenstein, Trinidad & Tobago, Benin, Malaysia, Estonia, Poland, Georgia, Philippines, Greece, Grenada, Uruguay, Indonesia, Slovakia, Costa Rica, Nigeria, Guyana, Kenya, Bolivia, Albania, Senegal, Cameroon, San Marino, Belize, Comoros, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cote d'lvoire, Samoa.
POLICIES TO PREVENT CLIMATE CHANGE:
In order to stabilise concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the IPCC predicts that more than 60% reductions in CO2 emissions are needed. Scientists warn that the longer reductions are delayed the harder it will become to prevent dangerous levels of climate change because CO2 emissions stay in the atmosphere for many centuries. Other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, also require significant emission reductions to stabilise or reduce their concentrations.
In reality, the world is going rapidly in the opposite direction. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 48% rise in global energy use by 2010 from 1991 levels, and a 50% increase in C02 emissions between 1990 and 2010. To change direction, we need old government action on a number of levels. Among other things, governments need to:
* Steadily phase out fossil fuels, replacing them with renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, small-scale hydro and biomass (for example, growing trees in plantations to burn for energy, with every tree burned being replaced by another tree.)
Studies by many government agencies and non-governmental organisations in both North America and Europe have convincingly shown that it is possible to reduce the world's CO2 emissions without increasing the cost of energy services. For example, Greenpeace International commissioned a study from the Stockholm Environment Institute which found that a phase-out of fossil fuels (and nuclear energy) could be achieved in the coming decades at a cost equal to or less than "business-as-usual" scenarios, by improving energy efficiency and rapidly introducing renewable energy.
There is a contradiction between these technical and environmental studies of reducing CO2 and the national action plans presented for the Berlin conference.
* Adopt CO2 reducing transport policies--less cars and trucks, more rail and public transport.
* Set minimum standards for energy efficiency for vehicles, buildings, household appliances, and industrial machines and processes.
* Halt all new power station construction without prior Least Cost Planning or Demand Side Management analysis, taking into account environmental costs.
* Redirect development assistance in the energy and transport sectors, including World Bank loans, into energy efficiency and renewable energy. At present less than 1% of energy loans by the World Bank are going to renewable energy systems.
* Implement policies that halt the world-wide destruction of forests. These policies should include strict criteria for sustainable forestry--with labelling so that consumers know which forest products are sustainably harvested--and land reform to protect the land-rights of forest-dwelling indigenous peoples and to meet the needs of landless peasants who are forced to clear the forest to grow food for themselves and their families.
These steps will not only help to prevent climate change. They make sense in many other ways. More public transport and energy efficient industry will mean less air pollution in cities. By developing solar energy, developing countries that are rich in sunshine can reduce their reliance on Northern oil companies for their energy. By protecting forests, we will protect countless species which are now vanishing with the forests. In short, most steps that need to be taken to prevent climate change are steps that should be taken in any case.
CLIMATE CHANGE, LOANS AND DEVELOPMENT AID: There is a strong need for action to ensure that the policies and lending activities of multilateral financial institutions and official development assistance do not undermine the objective of the Climate Convention, the protection of our climate.
Multilateral Development Banks and other financial institutions currently loan much larger volumes of funds to activities that directly influence the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries than will be available to the funding mechanism of the Climate Convention. For example, the annual volume of funds likely to be allocated to the Global Environment Facility (which is the interim funding mechanism of the Convention) for climate change saving projects over 1994-1996 is only 5% of the average amount spent annually by the World Bank over the past ten years on energy and transport projects that will produce CO2 emissions well into the future. Yet the development banks invest relatively little in energy efficiency and renewable energy.
It is thus imperative that action be taken to ensure that development funds are spent in ways that are consistent with the climate change convention which nearly all the major donor countries have ratified. Action should be taken in a number of areas:
* Both donor and recipient countries should support the development and implementation of CO2 reduction policies by multilateral development banks.
* Multilateral development banks and other lending institutions should be required to report on the CO2 implications of their activities and policies to cut emissions; donor countries who are parties to the Convention should report on the CO2 implications of the funding they give to the banks.
In the meantime, donor countries should withdraw support and developing countries should not accept support for the funding of projects that unnecessarily increase greenhouse gas emissions, especially coal-fired power plants and highways funded by the Word Bank and other development agencies. The financial resources from the Banks and other development programs should go instead to renewable energy, public transport and energy efficiency technologies.
It is sometimes remarked that it makes little sense for cash-strapped developing countries to be paying large sums of money to Northern oil companies for their energy, when tropical countries are extremely rich in an alternative source of energy: sunlight Investment in renewable energy would not only be good for the planet, it would help developing countries to be self reliant in meeting their energy needs.