CAN WE PREVENT A CLIMATE CRISIS? October 96
There is no longer any reasonable doubt that the polluting gases that humanity is pumping into the air are heating up our planet. In early 1996, 2,500 climate scientists warned that an unprecedented environmental catastrophe looks more likely every day. Action must be taken now. Whether governments will act decisively to prevent climate change is one of the most important stories of our time.
Human activities are causing the planet to heat up faster than at any time in the last 10,000 years. This 'global warming' is caused by a buildup of gases in the Earth's atmosphere, which trap the sun's energy. These gases - mainly carbon dioxide - are chiefly produced by the burning of coal, oil and gas, and the destruction of forests.
The 2,500 scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in their second report, published early in 1996, that the effects of climate change will include flooding of entire nations as sea levels rise, severe droughts and storms, destruction of agriculture and extinction of species.
At the Earth Summit in 1992, 150 governments signed an international agreement - the Framework Convention on Climate Change - in which industrialised countries promised to limit their emissions of global warming gases to 1990 levels by 2000. Developing countries agreed to seek ways to minimise emissions as their economies develop.
These commitments are only a small first step. Scientists say that the world needs to cut emissions by 50% - 70% just to stabilise the level of these gases in the atmosphere.
To do this, industrialised countries need to agree on rapid reductions in emissions. Among other steps, this means shifting from private car use to public transport, energy conservation, and a shift to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. In the developing countries of the South, vastly increased resources are needed to promote renewable energy and to create financial incentives to keep the last great forests intact.
There's no sign of the necessary resources coming from overstretched national budgets. Proposals for generating international funds for sustainable development - for example, through a small levy on airline tickets - are being discussed at the UN, but are meeting strong corporate and bureaucratic resistance.
Meanwhile, few of the world's richer countries look likely to keep their promises to limit emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. Elsewhere in the world, emissions contin ue to rise. And many corporations and oil-producing governments are fiercely resisting any steps to reduce the burning of oil and coal.
While governments talk, climate change has already begun. The ten hottest years in history have all occured since 1980. Last year (1995) was the hottest ever. The level of global warming gases in the air gets higher every day.
In December 1997 there will be a Climate Summit held in Kyoto, Japan, attended by most of the world's governments. This meeting will set the agenda for addressing climate change beyond the year 2000. In the run-up to this Summit, there will be a series of UN climate negotiations to consider what action to take after 2000, and to decide on targets for future emissions cuts. It is vital that they agree to meaningful targets. A good start would be the adoption of the proposal of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) under which industrialised countries agree to further cut their emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2005.
Ultimately, though, solutions must be found to the profligate system of energy consumption which the world currently operates. Three avenues that must be followed are:
* Switch to renewable energy sources: sound alternatives to coal, oil and gas already exist: solar energy, wind energy, alternative fuels for engines, hydro-electricity, biomass energy (the burning of sustainable natural fuels);
* Energy efficiency: much of the energy which we do produce is squandered, by inefficient methods of lighting, heating, travel and other everyday usages.
* Forests: deforestation is responsible for the release of 17% of the world's atmospheric carbon dioxide. Preventing further forest destruction is an important way to prevent climate change.
WHAT YOU CAN DO
Governments need to hear from their citizens that they must act to stabilise our climate. Please write to one or more of your representatives in your national parliament or congress. Ask him or her to urge your government to:
* Press, in the meetings running up to the Kyoto Climate Summit in December 1997, for all industrialised countries to cut their emissions of global warming gases by 20% below 1990 levels by 2005. This has been proposed by the Alliance of Small Island States.
* Explain what steps are being taken or considered in your country to reduce or minimise emissions of global warming gases.
* Support proposals at the UN for global revenue sources - such as a levy on air tickets - to generate funds to promote ecologically sustainable development in the South.
BACKGROUND
What exactly is 'global warming'?
Global warming, also known as the 'greenhouse effect', is the trapping of heat in the surface layers of the atmosphere by gases emitted from the Earth. A 'greenhouse effect' has existed ever since life first appeared. Natural emissions of gases, principall y water vapour and carbon dioxide, have been crucial in maintaining the temperature of the Earth at a point at which life can exist.
However, human activities are now adding to the natural greenhouse effect, and heating up the planet at an unprecedented rate. The major gases which contribute to global warming are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The burning of fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - in power stations and factories, in vehicle engines, for home heating etc, emits massive quantities of these gases into the atmosphere. Over the last century, we have significantly altered the chemistry of the air: the level of carbon has increased by 25%, the level of nitrous oxide by 19%, and the level of methane by 100%. Combined with the destruction of forests, (which retain carbon dioxide from the atmosphere within their vegetation) this is knocking the Earth's climate system out of balance.
The distance from the Earth's surface to the edge of the inner atmosphere is just nineteen kilometres (twelve miles). Six billion tonnes of carbon dioxide are forced in to that limited space every year. As a result, the level of greenhouse gases in the air increases every single day.
How can we be sure that global warming is really happening?
Although global warming has been suspected for decades, it has always been difficult to be absolutely certain that it was happening, and to predict its effects accurately. Because of this, scientists have, until recently, avoided reaching firm conclusions.
However, early in 1996, that changed. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a body of 2,500 climate scientists from all over the world, appointed by governments in 1988. Early in 1996 they produced their second major report. It stated - for the first time - that global warming was a scientific fact, and that the "balance of evidence" suggested human activity was a cause. It warned that the rate of warming predicted for the next century could be "greater than any seen in the last 10,000 years."
The vast majority of the world's climate experts have rallied around the IPCC consensus. Studies of the climate over the last century indicate that the world is already warming. The Earth has seen an average increase in temperature of between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees C over the last hundred years; sea levels are already rising at a rate of 6cm every half century; the ten hottest years in history have all occurred since 1980, with 1995 the hottest year on record. Global warming is no longer something that we hope will never happen: it is already here.
Why does global warming matter?
It is no exaggeration to say that climate change could precipitate the biggest catastrophe in human history. The IPCC has warned of its potential effects. They predict that the world could warm up by as much as 3.5 degrees C (6 degrees F) over the next hun dred years. That may not sound like much, but at the height of the last ice age, 15,000 years ago, the planet was only 3 - 5 degrees C (5 - 9 degrees F) colder than it is today.
The effects will be felt everywhere. One of the most destructive results w ill be the rise in world sea levels, as the ice sheets and glaciers melt. This is already happening. The IPCC has estimated that oceans may rise by as much as a metre by the end of the next century. This would mean the total disappearance of entire island nations, and the flooding of coastal zones If sea levels continue to rise, it could even mean the drowning of coastal cities. The world map could look very different in 100 years time.
There are many other dangers too. It is not impossible that global war ming could divert or shut down ocean currents which regulate the temperatures of particular regions. If the Gulf Stream were to shut down, for example, the temperature of northern Europe would drop to that of Alaska. Regional climatic variations, according to the IPCC, could lead to drought and famine in parts of the world. While the icy Siberian wastes may become fertile, China's farmland could suffer the reverse, threatening millions of people. Parts of Africa already susceptible to drought could become d isaster zones. The UN has even warned that, during the next century, nations could be going to war over scarce water supplies.
Global warming would bring an increase in unpredictable and devastating weather patterns - tornadoes, droughts, sudden floods - all over the world. It will lead to species extinction as habitats change. Deserts will spread.
Put simply, humanity is conducting a gigantic scientific experiment with the planet, and the consequences could be disastrous.
What is the world doing about it?
Governments first accepted that climate change was a problem at the Earth Summit in 1992, where 150 of them signed a 'Framework Convention on Climate Change'. In it, they "determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations". However , many governments still argued that there was not enough evidence to prove that climate change was happening, and others wanted to avoid committing themselves to action. The result was a watered-down Convention.
It did, however, contain one key commitment: industrialised countries promised to try and limit their emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2000. Developing countries made few concrete commitments, arguing that industrialised countries have caused most of the problem, and that they should take the lead in solving it. They did, however, commit themselves to try to minimise their emissions as their economies grow.
The fact that scientists say the world needs to cut emissions by between 50% and 70% just to stabilise the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - which would not even prevent global warming, merely stop it from accelerating - shows how much further governments need to go. And recent evidence suggests that most industrialised countries will not even meet the small commitment that they made in 1992.
What more needs to be done?
Governments need to accept the global scale of the problem, and work together to solve it. Three avenues that must be followed are:
* Switch to renewable energy sources: sound alternatives to coal, oil and gas already exist: solar energy, wind energy, alternative fuels for engines, hydro-electricity, biomass energy (the burning of sustainable natural fuels);
* Energy efficiency: much of the energy which we do produce is squandered, by inefficient methods of lighting, heating, and transportation. A crucial step will be making the shift from cars to public transport;
* Forests: deforestation is responsible for the release of 17% of the world's atmospheric carbon dioxide. Preventing further forest destruction is vital.
In the short term, governments must set firm targets for emissions reductions after the year 2000. The 'Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate' (AGBM) was set up at the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention in Berlinin 1995, to formulate these targets. It will next meet in March 1997, and again in late 1997, and will then report to the next Conference of the Parties, to be held in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997. All governments should back the proposal put forward by the All iance of Small Island States (AOSIS) for 20% cuts below 1990 levels for industrialised countries by 2005.
Action by developing countries is also crucial. Within a few decades, the so-called "Third World" nations are likely to be consuming more energy than the industrialized countries will be.
To promote renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries, and to create financial incentives to preserve the remaining forests, will require substantial new resources. There is little sign of thes e resources coming from national budgets. There is therefore a growing discussion at the UN of creating international revenue sources for sustainable development. These might include fees for use of the "global commons" - such as a levy on air tickets - or a levy on international currency transfers. Yet though international revenue sources are almost certainly essential to protect the global environment and to meet basic human needs, the governments of some of the largest industrial powers are resisting such proposals.
NEWS PEGS
* 3 - 7 March 1997: sixth meeting of the AGBM. Bonn, Germany.
* 1 - 12 December 1997: meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention. Kyoto, Japan.
KEY FACTS
Over the last century, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 25%, the level of nitrous oxide by 19% and the level of methane by 100%.These are the three major global warming gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels.
* Since 1900, the Earth's average surface temperature has risen by between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees C. By 2100, it could rise by as much as 3.5 degrees C - a comparable shift in temperature as between today and the last ice age.
* Melting ice caps and glaciers could lead to asea level rise of up to one metre by 2100. This would drown entire nations,and radically alter the world map,
* The IPCC has axpressed concern that global warming could massively disrupt ocean currents in just a few decades. If the Gulf Stream were to be diverted or shut down, for example, the temperature of northern Europe would plummet to that of Alaska.
* Scientists say the world needs to cut its emissions of global warming gases by between 50% and 70% just to stabilise the level of gases in the atmosphere. But emissions of these gases are projected to continue rising for decades.
EXPERT SOURCES
* UN Climate Change Secretariat Michael Williams Geneva, Switzerland Tel: 0041 22 979 9242. Fax: 0041 22 979 9034
* Climate Network Africa Grace Akumu Nairobi, Kenya Tel: 254 254 5241. Fax: 254 255 9122
* Climate Network Europe Delia Villagrasa Brussels, Belgium Tel: 322 231 0180. Fax: 322 230 5713
* Climate Action Network Southeast Asia Gurmit Singh Petaling Jaya, Malaysia Tel/Fax: 603 775 4039
* Climate Action Network Latin America Eduardo Sanhueza Santiago, Chile Tel: 562 2277 4389. Fax: 562 2222 5496
* Climate Action Network USA Cliff Wood Washington DC Tel: 1202 289 2401. Fax: 1202 289 1060
* Greenpeace International Bill Hare, Climate Campaigner, Amsterdam, Netherlands Tel: 3120 523 6222. Fax: 3120 622 1272